Bulls Need to Push


Bulls are pushing right up against the boundary of the upper trading range. This means they must quickly push to the 280 level to finally get The Bears to through in the towel. However, The Bulls do seem a bit overextended so chances are we see a pullback early this week before the Bulls attempt the breakout. The Bears want to break bellow 269 to regain some hopes of retesting the February low.

Statistics for 2 up week on the S&P: 58% chance of closing green but with a okay profit factor.


We are in the final phase of the long 8 year bull market. We just saw/are in the exhaustion phase of the Bull move. Since we have finally seen the abrupt pullback we have been mentioning, Bulls will now use their get out of jail free card. We are likely to see a large trading range develop over the next few weeks and that may last 1-3 months. Bulls will then try at the least to retest of the January high. So while we believe this pullback is a buying opportunity. The Bulls safety net is now gone, until a decisive new high is reached.

The period above the moving average came to an end at 64 weeks. This was the longest period above the average in the history of the S&P! So we clearly saw a historic bull move. Markets have inertia and this is why we believe Bulls are still safe and will likely, at least make a clear lower higher over the next few weeks/months. So for now the chance of this turning straight into a bear market are less than 20%.


Long-Term Market Outlook (Updated 11/5/17).

The Calendar:

This week: We will see Powell speak 2 times.

Next week: we will see the employment report


Trend Following Models:

Our long-term models are Bullish.
Our medium-term models are Neutral.
Our short-term models are Bullish.