Turbulent January?

Short-term

Last week was a low volume week as expected. However we did see a .36% decline. Much of this was due to last minute pretax selling that we predicted. This means the Santa Rally is on life support. The Bulls need to strike the first 2 days of January to salvage this period.

Bulls will look to bounce the market. Since we are in a tight range both initial targets are small. 264 for the Bears and 271 for the Bulls are the first lines in the sand.

 

As we mentioned we are now in the Santa Rally period. This period normally spans the last 5 days of the year as well as the first 2 days of the new year. Historically, a down Santa Rally period has been an Omen for larger market pullbacks.

Statistics for 1 down week on the S&P: next week historically, has a 59% chance to close in the green, with a decent profit factor.

Medium-Term:

We are now in the final climax phase of the long 8 year bull market. This will be the exhaustion phase of the Bull move. While this phase could continue for some time, chances are the upside is limited to around the 260-270 level in the medium term, but with a such a climax rationally goes out the window. Also, of note is that there is a long standing trend line dating back to the 2009 low above at this same 260-270 level. Since we have broken this trend line, it further increases the change a large, abrupt pullback. While the chances of such a sudden “crash” remain low by definition, they are slowly increasing.

We think a larger pullback in imminent with the Debt Ceiling debate coming up in mid to late January and many of the market catalysts are now priced into the market.

SPY has now risen for 14 months is a row which breaks the previous record, which is another sign of the current climatic market phase. We are now seeing volume indicators spike higher while at the same time momentum is slowly weakening. This type of divergence should lead to a sharp 1-3 month pullback which can start at any time over the next few months. The 258 level would be the first line in the sand. However, Bulls will likely buy the first larger pullback so Bulls continue to be in full control for the foreseeable future.

Even more evidence of the current climax can be seen with SPY being above its moving average (the blue line) for 58 periods. This is extremely unusual and we normally leads to a fall below this average in the near future. This is now the longest period above the average on the SPX since 1995 (about 62 periods), so we are very rare territory.

Long-Term:

Long-Term Market Outlook (Updated 11/5/17).

The Calendar:

This week: we will have the employment report.

Next week: we will see the CPI index

Trend Following Models:

Our long-term models are Bullish.
Our medium-term models are Bullish but weakening.
Our short-term models are Bullish but weakening.

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