As mentioned last week, we expected the pullback to have another leg down, which it did. On Friday, we saw a fairly large miss on the jobs report number. This plays into our longer term view, but on the short term the market now thinks a rate hike in June is off the table. This helped us put in a nice reversal candle. So we expect to see some follow through to the upside over the next couple of days as long as we break Friday’s high.
Nothing has really changed. We expected momentum to stall and that has now happened. We are likely to bounce around 204-210 for while, or even melt up. It took 3-4 months after the September lows for the market to fall so chances are after such a strong move up since February we are seeing something similar here. We should see action return as we head into the end of May and June.
Long-Term Market Outlook (Updated 4/17/16).
I am looking to get short miners for a quick trade. They are currently very overbought, and could see a nice quick pullback here over the next 2 weeks.
Somewhat of a slower week. The Fed is back to the good cop, bad cop speakers by the end of the week.
Trend Following Models:
My long term models are Bullish.
My medium term models are Bearish.
My short term models are turning Bearish but turning Bullish.