Weekend Update

Last week the bulls failed to push the SPX to an all time high, then bears showed up and aggressively filled the gaps. The pullback was not quickly bought and the bears showed some good strength.  However, this week, I still think the pullback will be bought. I also have a bunch of my bounce models that are now triggering. Any weakness on Monday can be a decent short term buy and we could see a bounce back to the 210 level or so. Then we will see if the bears can take back the ball.

After any bounce, if the 207.5 level is breached (preferably later in the week) then we may once again test the 204 level. We also have a very ugly 2 bar reversal on the weekly chart. With this type of pattern, a close below this weeks low is short setup, with a stop above the all time high.

At the end of May with Gold around $1220, I started looking at a Gold short position. This trade has worked out very well with Gold getting to about the 1070 level. I took off some of that position since I am expecting a bounce here. However, this could be an important week for the dollar with the FOMC on Wednesday and GDP on Thursday. We need to keep an eye on those reports. Talk of a rate increase sooner than later would help the dollar attack the green target. Overall, I still think Gold will have a closer test of the  1000 level.
As for the Calendar, the big event will be the FOMC on Wednesday. I think we can expect a rally into the netting with a slow day on Wednesday. We also have the GDP report on Thursday, so lets see if the bears come out of the woods.
My long term models are bullish.
My medium term models are mixed.
My short term models are bearish.- Trader Tony